Economy-Wide Impacts of Global Oil Market Disruptions on Malawi: Evidence from Middle East Conflict-Induced Fuel Price Shocks

Abstract

Global oil market disruptions from Middle East tensions create risks for fuel-importing economies such as Malawi. This brief presents early findings on how the Middle East conflict affects Malawi via global petroleum price shocks. It uses a standard CGE framework adapted from the IFPRI Social Accounting Matrix. Key findings: (1) Global fuel price increases pass through strongly into domestic prices, especially in energy-intensive sectors. (2) Cost-push inflation is the main channel, reducing rea